UN Report: Gaza Could Take 350 Years to Rebuild If Blockade Continues

A new report from the United Nations warns that it could take decades to rebuild Gaza following Israel’s offensive against Hamas, one of the most destructive military campaigns since World War II.

The U.N. Conference on Trade and Development stated that if the war were to end tomorrow and Gaza returned to the status quo prior to Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023, it might take 350 years for its battered economy to recover to its precarious prewar level.

Before the conflict, Gaza was under an Israeli and Egyptian blockade imposed after Hamas took power in 2007. Previous wars and divisions between Hamas and the Western-backed Palestinian Authority in the West Bank have also negatively impacted Gaza’s economy.

The current war has led to immense destruction throughout the territory, with entire neighborhoods flattened and roads and critical infrastructure in ruins.

Significant debris, including decomposing bodies and unexploded ordnance, would need to be cleared before any rebuilding could commence.

“Once a ceasefire is reached, a return to the pre-October 2023 status quo would not put Gaza on the path needed for recovery and sustainable development,” the report said. “If the 2007–2022 growth trend returns, with an average growth rate of 0.4 percent, it will take Gaza 350 years just to restore the GDP levels of 2022.”

Even under those conditions, the report indicates that GDP per capita would decline “continuously and precipitously” as the population grows.

Israel maintains that the blockade is necessary to prevent Hamas from importing arms and attributes Gaza’s dire situation to the actions of the militant group.

“There is no future for the people of Gaza as long as their people continue to be occupied by Hamas,” Israel’s ambassador to the U.N., Danny Danon, said in response to the report.

Three hundred and fifty years is a considerable length of time; it would be akin to England and the Netherlands only now recovering from the wars they fought against each other in the late 1600s.

Rami Alazzeh, the author of the report, explained that his calculation was based on the devastation of the economy during the first seven months of the war and the estimated time it would take to restore it using the GDP growth rate Gaza averaged from 2007 to 2022.

Gross domestic product (GDP) represents the total value of all goods and services produced in a country or territory.

“The message is the recovery in Gaza depends on the conditions in which the recovery would happen,” he said. “We’re not saying that it will take Gaza 350 years to recover because that means that Gaza will never recover.”

At the end of January, the World Bank estimated that the damage in Gaza amounted to $18.5 billion, nearly equal to the combined economic output of the West Bank and Gaza in 2022.

This assessment was made prior to some particularly destructive Israeli ground operations, including those in the southern border city of Rafah.

A U.N. assessment in September, based on satellite imagery, found that approximately a quarter of all structures in Gaza had been destroyed or severely damaged.

The report indicated that around 66% of structures, including more than 227,000 housing units, had suffered at least some damage.

The Shelter Cluster, an international coalition of aid organizations led by the Norwegian Refugee Council, determined that it would take 40 years to rebuild all the homes.

Even in the best-case scenario, the report states that recovery could still take decades, projecting that with a growth rate of 10%, Gaza’s recovery would remain a lengthy process.

“Assuming no military operation, and freedom of movement of goods and people and a significant level of investment, and population growth of 2.8 percent per year, UNCTAD estimates that Gaza’s GDP per capita will return to its 2022 level by 2050,” it said.

A separate report released Tuesday by the U.N. Development Program indicated that with significant investment and the lifting of economic restrictions, the Palestinian economy—including the West Bank—could be back on track by 2034.

However, without these measures, the report’s predictions align with those of UNCTAD.

On October 7, 2023, Hamas-led militants killed approximately 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted around 250 during their incursion into southern Israel. Currently, about 100 hostages are still believed to be inside Gaza, with a third thought to be dead.

Israel’s offensive has resulted in the deaths of over 42,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials. While these officials do not differentiate between combatants and civilians, they report that more than half of the deceased are women and children.

The conflict has also displaced around 90% of Gaza’s population of 2.3 million, forcing hundreds of thousands into overcrowded tent camps.

“Everybody now calls for a cease-fire, but people forget that once the cease-fire is done, the 2.2 million Palestinians will wake up having no homes, children having no schools, no universities, no hospitals, no roads,” Alazzeh said.

All of that will take a long time to rebuild and could prove impossible under the blockade.