Despite Refinery Boom, Nigeria Still Imports 69% Of Petrol: NMDPRA Data Shows

Despite a notable rise in domestic refining, Nigeria continues to rely heavily on imported petrol, with 69 per cent of the 21 billion litres consumed between August 2024 and early October 2025 sourced from abroad, according to new data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

The figures reveal that the country imported 15.01 billion litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) during the 15-month period, while 6.67 billion litres were produced locally, a significant shift since the Dangote Refinery began petrol production in September 2024.

The data, titled Import vs Domestic Supply Performance (PMS Daily Average Supply; August 2024 to October 2025), highlights a gradual but measurable rise in local refining alongside a steady fall in import volumes.

Import Dependence Still High

In August 2024, imported petrol averaged 44.60 million litres per day, peaking at 54.30 million litres in September when Dangote’s facility commenced supply to the Nigerian market. However, imports began to taper off in subsequent months dropping to 24.15 million litres per day by January 2025, 19.26 million litres by September, and 15.11 million litres in early October 2025.

Meanwhile, domestic output grew from 6.43 million litres daily in September 2024 to 22.66 million litres in January 2025, stabilising around 20 million litres per day in later months. By October 2025, Dangote’s daily output of 18.93 million litres had surpassed the import volume for the first time.

Market Shifts And Competition

The decline in petrol imports underscores the refinery’s growing role in Nigeria’s fuel market. Yet, competition has intensified between the Dangote Refinery and independent importers, who have accused the company of disrupting the market with frequent price cuts.

Despite Dangote’s growing domestic supply, total PMS availability has fluctuated, peaking at 60.73 million litres per day in September 2024 and falling to 34.04 million litres daily by October 2025, reflecting reduced consumption and supply shifts.

Nigeria’s deregulation of the downstream sector in September 2024 which ended decades of petrol subsidies also reshaped the supply landscape, forcing marketers to adjust to market-driven pricing and logistics.

Dangote’s Expanding Reach

The refinery’s operators have repeatedly defended their market strategy, with Dangote Group Vice President, Devakumar Edwin, recently challenging marketers to bring more tankers for loading, boasting of over 310 million litres of PMS in storage.

Beyond local supply, Dangote has begun exporting refined products including petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel to international markets. Between June and July 2025, the refinery reportedly exported one million tonnes of PMS, with additional sales of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco earlier in the year.

According to NMDPRA Chief Executive Farouk Ahmed, Dangote currently contributes an average of 20 million litres of petrol daily to the local market, a figure expected to rise as production ramps up.

Gradual Shift Toward Self-Sufficiency

The data underscores Nigeria’s ongoing transition from dependence on imports to a more balanced, refinery-driven supply system. While foreign fuel still dominates, the steady climb in domestic output points toward a future where local production could meet most of the country’s demand.

Still, market competition, pricing uncertainties, and the need for stable refinery operations suggest that Nigeria’s journey to full energy independence will take time. But with refining capacity expanding and consumption adjusting, the nation appears poised for a long-awaited transformation in its downstream petroleum sector.