Analysts Project Brighter Finish For Nigeria’s Economy As GDP Expected To Hit 4.22% In Q4 2025

Nigeria’s economy seems poised for a stronger finish to the year, with analysts at CardinalStone forecasting GDP growth of 4.22% in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from 3.98% recorded in Q3. It’s a modest lift, but one that signals quiet momentum building beneath the country’s economic surface. The projection, contained in CardinalStone’s latest Macro Research note released Tuesday, follows fresh GDP numbers published by the National Bureau of Statistics. The data showed that Nigeria grew slightly faster in Q3 2025 than the same period last year, though it slowed compared to the 4.23% achieved in Q2. CardinalStone was unsurprised by the Q3 dip. bella thorne only fans leak The firm pointed to softer oil output driven by planned maintenance and delayed activity at OMLs 71 and 72 as the main drag on growth. But the analysts expect the economy to gather steam again as the year closes out. They anchor their optimism on two things: improving macroeconomic conditions and a strong showing from November’s PMI numbers, which reflected broad expansion across economic activities. “We perceive that this robust output is likely to translate into strong GDP numbers for Q4’25,” the firm noted. With inflation easing and the currency experiencing relative stability, the path toward stronger domestic consumption appears to be reopening. Their forecast places full-year growth for 2025 at 3.92%.

Oil Slows, Non-Oil Sectors Step Up

While oil production slipped to 1.64 mb/d in Q3 from 1.68 mb/d in Q2, other sectors carried more weight.

Currency stability and moderating inflation helped fuel stronger consumer spending, lifting the trade sector. Banks also rode high OMO rates averaging 28% and raked in more fees and commissions.

Agriculture blossomed into its strongest growth in 14 quarters as the harvest season matured.

Yet not all sectors shared the sunshine.
ICT slowed as SIM-NIN deactivations continued to bite, and manufacturing remained constrained by stubbornly high borrowing costs. Private-sector credit was weaker than in the previous quarter—a clear signal that elevated interest rates are still choking expansion.

Broader Outlook: Strong 2025, Even Stronger 2026?

Stanbic IBTC’s Head of Equity Research, Muyiwa Oni, echoed the upbeat tone, projecting 4.0% growth for 2025. He expects both manufacturing and services to rebound faster than they did in 2024, a trend strengthened by government investment in infrastructure, livestock, trade facilitation, and renewed investor interest in oil, gas, and manufacturing.

He also pointed to the forward-linkage effects of the Dangote Refinery, a development many analysts believe will help unlock new value chains.

Looking further ahead, Oni projected that lower interest rates supported by falling inflation and a steadier exchange rate could boost consumption and investment in 2026, allowing more sectors to meaningfully contribute to GDP.

A Two-Speed Economy

Comercio Partners described Nigeria’s current state as a “two-speed economy”:
non-oil sectors steadying and showing resilience, while the oil sector continues to wrestle with operational obstacles.

Future growth, they argue, will hinge on whether the country can fix oil-sector inefficiencies, sustain non-oil expansion, and translate monetary policy into real-world investment.

Final Quarter Expectations

Meristem Securities also leans toward optimism, projecting 4.08% YoY growth in Q4 2025, closing the year at 3.88% overall.

All signs point toward an economy that is slowly finding its feet again picking up pace, sector by sector, as Nigeria marches toward year-end with a cautious but growing sense of economic revival.