Nigeria Loses N8.41tn To Oil Theft And Metering Failures In Four Years

Nigeria has lost crude oil worth N8.41 trillion between 2021 and July 2025 due to theft and poor metering, according to fresh data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

The report shows staggering annual losses: 37.6 million barrels in 2021, 20.9 million in 2022, 4.3 million in 2023, 4.1 million in 2024, and 2.04 million in just the first seven months of 2025. At current exchange rates, these losses amount to $5.61 billion.

To put the scale in perspective, the stolen value could have built over 56,000 health centres, 129,000 classroom blocks, or more than 10,000 kilometres of road. By comparison, the entire 2025 federal allocation for road projects was only one-eighth of the total value lost to theft.

While NUPRC celebrated recent progress with daily losses now at their lowest levels in nearly 16 years experts argue the cumulative impact exposes deep governance failures.

Oil and gas consultant Chukwuma Atuanya acknowledged improvements due to tighter security, better metering, and surveillance, but warned theft still undermines the economy. “It fuels currency devaluation, weakens the naira, and scares away investors,” he said.

Professor Dayo Ayoade of the University of Lagos doubted the accuracy of NUPRC’s figures, citing unreliable metering systems. He accused security forces of complicity, noting that no high-level perpetrators have ever been jailed despite trillions in losses. “Until we start jailing people, including complicit officials and politicians, this cycle will continue,” he warned.

Despite reforms under the Petroleum Industry Act and technology adoption, experts say real progress depends on stronger governance, community involvement, and strict accountability.

Nigeria remains heavily reliant on crude oil for over 90 per cent of its foreign exchange. Even modest daily losses of 10,000 barrels per day continue to erode investor confidence and government finances.

The N8.41 trillion already lost stands as a stark reminder of squandered opportunities in health, education, and infrastructure. As Ayoade summed it up: “How can trillions vanish and nobody is punished? Until accountability becomes real, oil theft will remain Nigeria’s greatest self-inflicted wound.”