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IMF Upgrades Nigeria’s Economic Growth Forecast For 2025 And 2026

gisthub Jul 30, 2025
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic outlook for Nigeria, raising the country’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.4%, up from its earlier projection of 3.0% in April. Similarly, the 2026 growth estimate has been upgraded to 3.2%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous 2.7% forecast.

These revisions were detailed in the IMF’s July 2025 World Economic Outlook, which also reflected improved global projections. The global economy is now expected to grow by 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, each slightly higher than the April forecasts.

For Sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF now anticipates growth of 4.0% in 2025 and 4.3% in 2026, reflecting modest upward adjustments of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.

The upgraded forecasts signal cautious optimism, underpinned by resilient domestic reforms and a stabilizing global economic environment.

“Growth is expected to be relatively stable in 2025 in sub Saharan Africa at 4.0 percent, before picking up to 4.3 percent in 2026,” the IMF said.

Reacting to the updated forecast for Nigeria, Head of Equity Research at FBNQuest Merchant Bank, Tunde Abidoye said, “The IMF’s forecast of 3.4% is precisely in line with our in-house view based on the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics, NBS data points.

“I believe the upward revision likely reflects improved oil production and the strong performance of services. That said, the range bound single digit growth rate forecast still portends cautious optimism, as the growth is still too modest to tackle the poverty problem.”

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