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Over 14 Million People Could Die From US Foreign Aid Reductions – Study

gisthub Jul 01, 2025
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More than 14 million of the world’s most vulnerable people, a third of them small children, could die by 2030 because of the Trump administration’s dismantling of US foreign aid, research projected on Tuesday.

The study in the prestigious Lancet journal was published as world and business leaders gather for a United Nations conference in Spain this week hoping to bolster the reeling aid sector.

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) had provided over 40 percent of global humanitarian funding until Donald Trump returned to the White House in January.

Two weeks later, Trump’s then-close advisor — and world’s richest man — Elon Musk boasted of having put the agency “through the woodchipper”.

Study co-author Davide Rasella, a researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), warned that the funding cuts “risk abruptly halting — and even reversing — two decades of progress in health among vulnerable populations.”

“For many low- and middle-income countries, the resulting shock would be comparable in scale to a global pandemic or a major armed conflict,” he said in a statement.

Analyzing data from 133 countries, the international research team estimated that USAID funding helped prevent 91.8 million deaths in developing nations between 2001 and 2021—surpassing the estimated death toll of World War II.

Using models to assess the potential impact of an 83 percent funding cut announced earlier this year by the US government, the researchers projected that such reductions could result in over 14 million preventable deaths by 2030. This figure includes more than 4.5 million children under the age of five, averaging around 700,000 child deaths annually.

For perspective, approximately 10 million soldiers died during World War I.

The researchers found that programs supported by USAID were associated with a 15 percent reduction in overall mortality.

Among children under five, the decline was even more significant—deaths dropped by 32 percent.

The study also highlighted that USAID funding was especially effective in preventing deaths caused by diseases that are otherwise avoidable.

The study revealed that countries receiving substantial USAID support saw 65 percent fewer deaths from HIV/AIDS compared to those with minimal or no funding.

It also found that deaths from malaria and neglected tropical diseases were reduced by half in those nations.

Co-author Francisco Saute of Mozambique’s Manhica Health Research Centre noted he had personally witnessed the positive impact of USAID in combating HIV, malaria, and tuberculosis in affected communities.

“Cutting this funding now not only puts lives at risk — it also undermines critical infrastructure that has taken decades to build,” he stressed.

A newly updated tracker by disease modeller Brooke Nichols of Boston University estimates that over 108,000 adults and 224,000 children have already died due to U.S. foreign aid cuts—averaging 88 deaths per hour.

Following the reduction of USAID funding, other key donors including France, Germany, and the UK also announced plans to slash their foreign aid budgets.

Study co-author Caterina Monti of ISGlobal warned that further aid reductions, particularly across the EU, could result in even more deaths in the coming years.

However, the researchers noted that these projections are based on current pledged aid levels and could improve if funding is restored.

Meanwhile, dozens of global leaders are convening in Seville, Spain, this week for the largest aid summit in a decade—though the United States is not participating.

“Now is the time to scale up, not scale back,” Rasella said.

Before the funding cuts, USAID accounted for just 0.3 percent of total U.S. federal spending. Despite its relatively small share of the budget, the agency played a critical role in supporting global health, humanitarian aid, and development programs around the world.

“US citizens contribute about 17 cents per day to USAID, around $64 per year,” said study co-author James Macinko of the University of California, Los Angeles.

“I think most people would support continued USAID funding if they knew just how effective such a small contribution can be to saving millions of lives.”

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