Recent data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) organization reveals a notable reduction in armed conflict within the Niger Delta, which experts suggest has contributed to a recovery in oil production. Violent incidents in the South-South region dropped by 20.9 per cent between 2023 and 2025, with associated fatalities falling by 8.3 per cent.
Reflecting this stabilization, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported that crude oil production reached a 15-month high in May 2026. Nigeria produced an average of 1.53 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude, plus 170,446 bpd of condensates, totaling 1.7 million bpd. This performance exceeded the OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd.
Lawmakers, including Dekor Dumnamene Robinson, have credited this success to the surveillance efforts of Tantita Security Services Nigeria Ltd (TSSNL). Industry stakeholders and host communities, led by figures such as High Chief Government Ekpemupolo, have lauded the partnership between Tantita and the NNPCL for curbing pipeline vandalism and theft. Analysts note that before these security interventions in late 2022, production had plummeted to a historic low of 1.015 million bpd, threatening the national economy.
While the Niger Delta and certain southern regions have seen improved security, the ACLED report highlights a different reality elsewhere. Nigeria as a whole faced a sharp increase in violent incidents and fatalities between 2023 and 2025, with the North-West, North-East, and North-Central regions experiencing significant escalations in conflict. Despite these national challenges, the relative peace in the Niger Delta remains vital for sustaining the country’s economic recovery and energy sector stability.