China’s Population Declines for Third Consecutive Year

China’s population has continued to decrease for the third consecutive year in 2024, with deaths outnumbering births.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the country’s total population dropped by 1.39 million to 1.408 billion, compared to 1.409 billion in 2023. This marks a continued decline, with experts predicting the trend will worsen in the coming years.

The data highlights growing concerns about long-term challenges for the world’s second-largest economy. The shrinking working-age population is increasing pressure from rising elderly care costs and pension liabilities, putting strain on already debt-laden local governments.

In 2024, China recorded 9.54 million births, a slight increase from 9.02 million in 2023, raising the birth rate to 6.77 births per 1,000 people from 6.39 in 2023. However, the number of deaths decreased to 10.93 million from 11.1 million in 2023, pointing to continued demographic difficulties.

The country’s declining birth rates have been a persistent issue, worsened by the one-child policy that lasted from 1980 to 2015 and rapid urbanization. Much like neighboring Japan and South Korea, many Chinese have moved from rural areas to cities, where the high cost of living makes raising children financially challenging.

Additionally, young people face job insecurity and a slowing economy, leading to delays in marriage and family formation. Gender discrimination and traditional expectations for women to prioritize domestic roles have further compounded these issues, according to demographers.

“Much of China’s population decline is rooted in entrenched structural reasons: Without fundamental structural transformations – from enhancing the social safety net to eliminating gender discrimination – the trend of population decline cannot be reversed,” said Yun Zhou, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Michigan.

In 2024, China saw a temporary boost in births, following a 12.4% increase in marriages in 2023 that had been delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, demographers warn that birth rates are likely to decline again in 2025, as marriages are strongly linked to childbirth in China, where many single women have limited access to child-raising benefits.

In response to the ongoing demographic crisis, Chinese authorities have implemented measures to encourage higher birth rates. In December 2024, they urged universities to incorporate “marriage and love education” into their curricula to foster positive attitudes toward marriage, love, fertility, and family.

The state council has also called on local governments to invest in initiatives that address the population crisis and promote childbearing at the “right age.”

The outlook remains concerning, with the number of women of reproductive age expected to fall by more than two-thirds, dropping below 100 million by the end of the century.

Meanwhile, the population aged 60 and above is projected to rise to over 400 million by 2035, up from around 280 million today, which will place significant pressure on the pension system. The Chinese Academy of Sciences has warned that the pension system could run out of funds by 2035.

In 2024, about 22% of China’s population, or 310.31 million people, were aged 60 or older, up from 296.97 million in 2023. Urbanization continued at a rapid pace, with the urban population rising by 10.83 million to 943.3 million, while the rural population decreased to 464.78 million.