Nigeria Falls Short of OPEC Production Target Amid Sectoral Challenges

Nigeria’s crude oil output, excluding condensates, saw a marginal 0.7% decrease in November 2025, according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report from OPEC.

Production dipped to 1.486 million barrels per day (mbpd) from October’s 1.496 mbpd, based on secondary source data. This figure remains below Nigeria’s established OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd.

While secondary data showed a slight decline, direct communications from Nigeria to OPEC reported a rise in production to 1.436 mbpd in November, up from 1.401 mbpd the previous month.

Additionally, the November output marks a year-on-year improvement over the 1.417 mbpd recorded in late 2024.

It is important to note that these figures exclude the 196,028 barrels of condensate Nigeria produces daily, as OPEC does not count condensates toward official production limits.

Industry experts, including petroleum economist Wumi Iledare, suggest that the failure to hit production targets is expected due to several systemic issues.

Iledare highlighted ongoing security concerns, a lack of new oil field discoveries in maturing basins, and a stagnant bidding process for new hydrocarbon blocks.

Furthermore, he noted that inconsistent application of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and a lack of centralized leadership have eroded investor trust, hindering the country’s ability to consistently meet its international supply obligations.